The Seattle Kraken picks from the Pittsburgh Penguins - A Projection

With the Kraken's expansion draft (theoretically) little more than a year away, everybody's having a shout about who'll get selected. Virtually all of them have Seattle picking Matt Murray from the Penguins and that, ladies and gentlemen, is a waste of everyone's time. And this is my shout on why, and the alternatives. Let's break down the Penguins' exposed list shall we?

Goaltenders

Eligible: Matt Murray, Tristan Jarry, Casey DeSmith

Exempt: Emil Larmi, Alex D'Orio

Minimum requirement: A goaltender under contract for the 21-22 season (met by DeSmith, presumably by Murray and Jarry too)

Right now the assumption everyone's making - admittedly frequently with the proviso that they expect a change - is that this will be the Penguins' goaltenders, Murray will be exposed as the more expensive player, and that Murray will be selected. Here's a logic tree of how this goes.

Q1: Will Murray and Jarry both be on the Penguins by the expansion draft? No go to 2A, Yes go to 2B.

2A. No - Well, can't draft one. No has a lot of things going for it. If Murray has an outstanding playoffs, his contract will be sufficiently high that either the Penguins probably can't afford it, or they can but need to trim around the edges and goodbye Mr Jarry. If Jarry has an outstanding playoffs, the net is his, and Murray probably moves on. Where it gets murky is if Murray's just okay, or if both are bad, but even then there's a bunch of possibilities around keeping only one. Even if they keep both next season, offloading one before the expansion draft is still on the table. It's probably too early to build assumptions but change is likely.

2B. Yes. Will Murray have a contract (i.e. not be a pending UFA) for the 21-22 season? No go to 3A, Yes go to 3B.

3A. No - Well, can't draft Murray unless he wants to sign there, which is a dubious proposition for a guy who's finally in a position to pick his destination and pay cheque. It seems unlikely Rutherford makes this move with Murray but if neither goalie runs off with the job this summer and he can afford it, maybe he does.

3B. Yes. Will Seattle want to select whichever goaltender the Penguins expose? No go to 4A, Yes go to 4B.

4A. No - Seattle absolutely wanting either guy at the end of next season isn't a slam dunk. Seattle will be getting the worse player in this bargain and it's possible worse doesn't mean still very good, but actively bad. If Murray's on a big contract after 3 not-good seasons out of the last 4, is he really the guy to go with? If Jarry loses out, is this season's All Star nod just a mirage? And does Rutherford give them the sort of contracts that make them good picks?

4B Yes. Congratulations, it actually happens. 

But there's three hoops to jump through here. 2B is probably safe but Q1 and 3B, there's considerable chances the plan doesn't go through here. And as such, at this stage, the Kraken probably don't get a Penguins goaltender. Arguably the most realistic likelihood to end up there is Casey DeSmith if he has an incredible season as a back-up next year, but it still feels unlikely. One of them going there is a possibility but it's not an odds-on projection and probably won't be until the Penguins open next season with Murray and Jarry on the roster.

So who else?

Defence

Must Protect: Letang

Eligible: Dumoulin, Pettersson, Johnson, Riikola

Pending UFA: Ruhwedel

Exempt: Marino, Joseph

Minimum Requirement: A dman under contract for 21-22 who has played 40 NHL games in the last season, or 70 in the last two - presumably will be met by Dumoulin, Pettersson and Johnson, might not be met by Riikola

This is a slam dunk section. The Penguins have three eligible dmen that it would be sensible to protect in Letang, Dumoulin, and Pettersson, which fits nicely into a 7-3 protection. Losing Jack Johnson? Don't threaten me with a good time. Even Rutherford, publicly (and probably truthfully to his mind) supportive of JJ as he is, would have to concede that coming out of the expansion draft with 3.25m of cap and the most worrying age related decline gone from the books, at the cost of at best the 5th most important dmen and one with a natural heir in the org, would be a best case scenario. It seems unlikely Seattle will take the Penguins' best case scenario just like that.

The only potential wrinkle is with Riikola, or whoever replaces him/Schultz as a third pairing dman next season. There's a vacant berth there and if the Penguins spend to replace it, or give Riikola a longer contract and that berth, there's a chance that by the end of the season that third pairing dman looks an attractive get for Seattle. This one feels hard to project but lets go over the particulars.

If the dman is a puck mover like Riikola, the opportunity level is mixed. Pittsburgh do play a PMD friendly style and do give the third pairing solid minutes as a rule, but getting Power Play time will be difficult. If they're more stay at home, then again special team minutes might be a struggle, but it's probably a bit of a better scenario as the points total should still look healthy. In either case, there'd probably need to be some major Penguins injuries for the chance to look like a very good ED pick to come up. The dman would also probably have to be a very solid two-way guy too. If this all came true, there's a chance this Riikola/mystery dman could become the pick, or even become protected and make Pettersson the pick, but that's going to require some exemplary recruitment and lucky usage to come true.

Forwards

Must Protect: Crosby, Malkin

Eligible: Guentzel, Rust, Zucker, Hornqvist, McCann, Tanev, Blueger, Aston-Reese, Simon, Lafferty

Pending UFA: Bjugstad

Exempt: ...

Minimum Requirement: Two forwards under contract for 21-22 who has played 40 NHL games in the last season, or 70 in the last two - presumably will be met by every single man there 

Here be gold.

The Penguins are, barring something dramatic, going to have to expose multiple talented forwards who've shown they can be trusted in hard bottom six roles and have flashed signs of top six talent. It's possible the Kraken would prefer to select from here than the goalies anwyay.

Right now, the exact protected list is difficult to decide. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Rust and Zucker all seem definite as fairly paid top six locks.

Hornqvist is the next question. Right now he's the best player in our bottom six and most important part of the power play; if he sustains form, he has to stay. If Father Time comes for him, getting him out of town as quickly as possible is the right call. The gambler's hand here would seem to be leaving him exposed, guessing that Seattle are thinking much the same thing, but another great season would make that gamble feel less comfortable.

At which point we're talking about a host of great bottom six players who may have potential. If someone wanted to try and be sneaky about it, they might hope Blueger and Aston-Reese are easy to sneak through unprotected as they'd count against the limit of unsigned players Seattle could take. I doubt that'd work but it might be the thinking.

There's not a lot of point trying to project this as ultimately this is going to be based on next season's performance. However, a few scenarios -

The most obvious protect comes if Simon nails down being Crosby's wing (or I guess anyone else, but Simon will get first, second and third bites on this). It should also be noted that if Simon can't do this, he's probably not a guy Seattle wants.

The next most obvious protect comes for whoever nails down 3C. It's been a problem position for the Penguins, they're not going to lose a young player who takes the problem away. The question there is who? Beat reporters think McCann is their man, Sully's usage says Blueger. I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the answer becomes 'both', particularly if the Penguins' recent usage of Lafferty hints they see him more as a W than as a C. That protects the depth to a great deal and protects two guys who are potentially quite important to the team - Blueger is their chief PKer, McCann is the man who supposedly has the best shot after Malkin and they're experimenting with him on PP1. If both players are getting leaned on hard for special teams time by the coach, keeping both will be on the cards. If it's just one, I'd lean to the one with the highest offensive ceiling (i.e. McCann) being the one kept. Since I can't particularly see Hornqvist *and* Simon both demanding slots, I think McCann is protected barring a stinker from him or a stormer from Blueger.

If neither Hornqvist or Simon demands a slot, and only one C demands a slot, then the next best winger is in and that's probably Brandon Tanev. He might even beat out the above as Yohe predicted. It's clear Rutherford loves him and the players love the energy he brings. He could be threatened by an Aston-Reese that remembers how to score goals, or Lafferty surging by, but he's got a notable head start on them. Of course, it is also an expensive head start, and one likely to go on for maybe a little longer than the Penguins would like. If JJ is dream scenario due to the cap x age thing, and Hornqvist is uncertain, then Tanev is the next guy to consider. Getting the two years Tanev is definitely worth 3.5m and leaving another team to wonder about Tanev at 4 x 3.5m from 29 to 33 isn't the worst outcome in the world.

All in all, it seems likely that any Penguins forward selected being one of Hornqvist, Blueger, Tanev, and maybe Aston-Reese. I include Aston-Reese due to his standing among the analytics community; if Francis is leaning hard on them, maybe he'll pick Aston-Reese. That is impossible to predict right now (despite knowing Seattle have hired some big names there). Also impossible to predict right now is how much value Francis would attach to a player and gamble like Hornqvist (there's one little added detail to consider here - Oshie makes a ton of sense for Seattle if exposed, which makes a ton of sense for Washington, and does a team really want two ageing PP dependent right wingers?). So Blueger and Tanev are the logical safe bets. 

Personally, I think Blueger should be considered more valuable by both. Centre vs Wing. Younger. Cheaper. Probably more offensive upside. There's also team need to be considered. Consensus suggests players like Van Riemsdyk, Oshie, Palat and so on could be available. Seattle can get a pretty decent set of wingers. Centre wise, the competition is guys like Jarnkrok and Josh Bailey. Pittsburgh's upcoming wing depth is strong. Lafferty, the next guy up, is good there. Poulin, the Penguins' next prospect on the scene, is a wing. Legare and Hallander, the next guys behind him not in WBS, is a wing. In WBS, it's wings as far as the eye can see. At C? Lafferty is also good there, but the Pens have increasingly used him at W when given the choice. Hallander might be a C at the NHL level - might. Bellerive down in WBS might be - might.

As such, I'm leaning towards Tanev being Seattle's choice. I might be wrong about the org's wants and obviously things will change, but based on the Penguins' likely direction and Seattle's likely direction, it feels the most likely destination.

So stop projecting Murray when we all know it's odds against and start picking from the players likely to go.

P.S. Protection Deals

Right now I hope the Penguins don't get involved in this. Right now it feels like a loss from the bottom six can be managed fairly easily from within. There are obviously circumstances where this might change. One is a very tight cap squeeze that might result in the Penguins wanting to guide Seattle to a high cap player and away from the cheap ones. This seems unlikely but given the lack of expiring contracts (particularly if Bjugstad is moved for cap this season) and Marino's likely high contract, it's possible. Even then, it feels like the Penguins might simply take the hit from the expansion draft and take their cap dumps elsewhere. It's not like the Kraken mightn't take the right player unprompted.

The other possible circumstance is where enough players emerge that leaving certain players unprotected hurts more than letting them go. Feeling the need to protect 8th or 9th forwards feels greedy; if they have fantastic seasons, that'll just cause the cost of protecting them to go up. Maybe if there's nine fantastic seasons and we want them to take player nine rather than play eight it's possible. The more likely is a storming season from a new dman but it's hard to see how they'd look so good that a third pairing guy had to be kept. I think if there is to be a deal, it is likely the two circumstances would combine, with the Penguins paying a little to guide Seattle to Hornqvist (or maybe a goaltender) and away from cheap strong contributors. This does feel unlikely though.