US Forwards - Right Wing
In order to test the rating system I was making up off the top of my head in terms of what made sense to me, I decided to do the smallest pool first - right wing. That is Patrick Kane, Bryan Rust, Blake Wheeler, Brock Boeser, Kyle Palmieri, and Blake Coleman.
First off, let me quickly explain what this system is trying to measure and the methodology. The system is trying to measure performance this season based on how they did in 5v5 units. There is no predictive quality nor am I using isolates. To do so, it measures stats for the three main areas - 5v5 goal scoring, 5v5 playmaking/puck movement, and 5v5 defence - and for three supplementary areas in 5v4 PP, 4v5 PK, and Burden - and spits out scores out of 10 (except for burden). The first three stats go into the players' stats, the supplementary stats are mainly used for added context and potential tiebreakers. Note that where possible, players who split seasons use whole season stats rather than one team or the other.
5v5 Goal Scoring derives mainly from g/60, leavened by a few stats derived from stats like ixg/60, iCF/60, iFF/60 and shots/60 to try and give a picture of just how efficient and sustainable the goal scoring is. I know I said there is no predictive quality, but I want to reward goalscorers who scored because they did the right thing over those who got hot.
5v5 Puck Movement derives mainly from a/60, GF/60 and xGF/60 both as rates and relative, and the transition and shot assist states collected by Corey Snzajder. It also makes some use of Bryce Chevaller's player type categories.
5v5 Defence derives mainly from GA/60 and xGA/60 both as rates and relative, the recoveries and puck pressure stats from Snzajder's project, and stats such as hits, shots blocked and takeaways, with high PIM penalised.
5v4 PP simply shrinks the first two down into one using PP stats. 4v5 PK uses much the same methodology as 5v5 Defence. And Burden is just the QoC measurement from DobberHockey's charts.
The stat links used are
https://architecte-hockey.com/
My full messy stats are here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GabE2dHs5UeRbImBuXkG_Hw2YsbbShHMQ5GczRKTWm0/edit?usp=sharing
My full messy stats are here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GabE2dHs5UeRbImBuXkG_Hw2YsbbShHMQ5GczRKTWm0/edit?usp=sharing
With that said, let's get onto the scores
And let's talk about the scores
1. Did I just say Rust had a better season than Patrick Kane?
Well. Uhm. Yes. Controversial, or maybe not considering their xGF%s and Rust's p/60 being only 0.09 behind Kane. Nevertheless, the stats here are questionable and do reveal potential weaknesses in the methodology. I don't have any isolates for showing Rust minus the support of Malkin, or Kane minus the more questionable support of Strome.
That said, I do think these stats do at least point to some good questions about both players. In Kane's case, the thing that dragged him down is goal scoring, a curious assertion about a guy with 1 g/60 (upper half of this group). The reason for this is that Kane was wasteful in doing so. He led the way in s/60 and iCF/60 by some distance and his shooting percentage was second lowest. Yes he scored, but the other players' scoring is deemed more valuable because it passed up less opportunities. Maybe if I were to watch Chicago's games, I'd see a lot of shots taken for want of other options. In comparison, Rust, while also reliant on high shot totals, was shooting from far better positions. He had the highest ixG/60. He was the best goal scorer from this group. How long he can stay such a good goal scorer is a good question, but he isn't likely to stop being generally good anytime soon.
Both players were let down a little by defence, something that surely wasn't unexpected for Kane but was for Rust. Here, the isolates might play in Rust's favour, as he posted good results but on a very strong defence, making his relative scores poor. The fact he couldn't catch up ground through forechecking and takeaways is mildly surprising though, but them's the facts - maybe a more offensive minded role meant sacrificing part of his game. As for Kane - his ga/60 was the lowest, his xga/60 the highest. There's a good chance this score is overrating him.
Would I expect Rust to do similarly well next year, or for Kane to have the same shortcomings in a better environment? If the Olympics were coming up now, finding out would be the logical thing to do. They were the two best American RWs by these measures by a notable little distance. Considering the paucity of options here, it would be good for the US if they could stay at this standard. Rust's ability to remain an elite player after becoming one so late will remain in question until he's done it. As for Kane - his ability remains unquestionable, but a pessimist could see shades of Kessel in the poor possession stats and slight wastefulness. His big trick should stay relevant longer than Kessel's, but it's not impossible Kane needs sheltering come the next Olympics. For now though, these would be America's probable top 6 RWs.
2. That's some Wheely bad PKing
When I started this, the idea was scores between 1 and 10. I didn't envisage -2.63. But then, I didn't envisage a PKer (Wheeler played 30+ seconds a night, enough for me to view him seriously) have a 14.42 ga/60 and a 10.42 xga/60. He was actually real productive on the PK and did a lot of takeaways but dear god that had to sink him. Right now, I'm letting the score by. Some things break the rules.
Other than that - which doesn't count for his score, lucky bugger - Wheeler's an obvious choice. Bad things don't happen while he's on ice at 5v5 and his individual stats show he's probably got something to do with that. Good things do and his ability to move the puck, particularly in terms of breaking out of his own zone, probably does have something to do with it. He's one of the worst goal scorers here but still respectable and his goal scoring is economic and efficient; we can trust him to take his chances but not force ought.
By the numbers, Wheeler is definitely in, and the obvious choice for 3rd line RW. However, due to skillset, it's possible he gets used in the top 6 to add a little responsibility; it wouldn't be above his paygrade. It's also possible he'd be used for a defensively responsible 4th line. Either way, he's dressing, and should age take him out of contention by 2022 there'll be a bit of a gap.
3. Should I Stay Or Should I Boes
By the numbers, Brock Boeser was the 4th best performing American specialist right wing and should get the final slot. But he's sufficiently below the standard set by the others, and near enough to the other two, that I don't want to consider it a fait accompli. It should also be noted his QoC was the lowest of all the players here. Is he still going to be the 4th best if fed a steady diet of Canada's Selke nominees or the Swedish defence?
Boeser's numbers suggest a flexible and well-rounded player, but looking deeper shows a slightly different tale. He's a marksman who failed to post above average, a player with curiously bad zone entry numbers that might account for his role on a dismal power play, whose greatest strengths were in fact in his own zone and as a playmaker. He wouldn't be a bad player to take along but I wonder whether the more specialised players wouldn't be better shouts.
Palmieri probably isn't that player. He was a better goal scorer but he offers little to breakout, zone entries, playmaking or forechecking. His possession numbers were great against good opposition on a bad team but I can't help but doubt whether he was actually the straw that stirred the drink there.
Blake Coleman might be. He had strong defensive results and his actions suggest he might have had something to do with them. He's strong in transition and on the forecheck and what's more, his play style offers a nice alternative to a group that is mostly small and skill focused. I haven't added his PKing into this, but him and Rust are the only two effective PKing RWs available. It's a good possibility that PKing looks essential later.
Right now I don't have an answer. I don't think any of them showed the level of quality one should be looking for in a national team starter. I'm going to revisit this after doing C and LW. If I'm lucky, I can move a higher performing LW here. If not,
Results
In: Patrick Kane, Bryan Rust, Blake Wheeler
Out: Kyle Palmieri
Bubble: Blake Coleman, Brock Boeser
We should trade Bryan Rust as a cap dump though :)
ReplyDeleteNot my finest moment I'll admit... (where nobody else is looking)
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