What the flat cap means for the Penguins
The results are in, the new CBA is ratified, and the near future of the NHL is set with a flat cap of 81.5m. It's great news for hockey. But in terms of the near future of the Penguins, and a bunch of other teams like them, it's meh. It's not great news, it's not awful news, but it is real fucking meh. Let's go into why.
Right now, the Pens have 16 players signed for next season using 68.275something million. That leaves them with up to 7 roster spots (no need to fill all 23 spots through a season though) to fill using 13.22something million. That's a basically okay situation in isolation. Of course, we all know the issues coming, but bear with me with me while I go through it in detail.
There are 10 forwards already signed - Malkin, Crosby, Guentzel, Zucker, Hornqvist, Bjugstad, Tanev, Rust, Aston-Reese and Blueger. Unsigned players include UFA Sheary and a whole slew of RFAs in McCann, Rodrigues, Simon and Lafferty. It's a strong forward corps that needs little additional help to win most nights with very few players who don't pull their weight (argument over Bjugstad and that's it). None of the free agents would be considered huge blows if they went (you heard me right McCann fans) and none are going to be wildly expensive, with McCann's 43 point season giving him comparables in the 3.25-3.5m area. Oh yes. Just realised I didn't mention Marleau. The guy with a family really entrenched in San Jose is going back to San Jose. I'd be happy to bring him back just to fuck with Toronto, but he's not coming back, and even if he does he's minimum wage so no big.
There are 6 dmen already signed - Letang, Dumoulin, Pettersson, Johnson, Marino and Ruhwedel. Unsigned players are the UFA Schultz and RFA Riikola. It's a mostly strong blueline corps because there's 4 guys who can be difference makers and 2 guys whose best case scenarios are more or less "don't suck". Finding a way to replace those 2 (Johnson and Ruhwedel) with difference makers would be a big boon. Neither free agent is particularly likely to be that if presented with more than soft minutes, although it's possible. Riikola would be cheap to keep; Schultz's price tag after a car crash of a season is unknown.
There are no goaltenders signed. Both Murray and Jarry are RFAs but have made arguments to get decent chunks of money. Paying both would probably chew through over half the allotted space - maybe more like two thirds. It would give the team arguably the strongest goaltending tandem in the league but right now, it would take some spectacular work to make possible. Thank you for reading through all of what you already know.
There are three big questions for the Pens here
1) Can you underpay any of the RFAs
2) Can you shift any of the expensive guys you can live without
3) If you have to pick a goalie, which one
1) Can you underpay any of the RFAs
Last season, the Pens got out of a hole by persuading Pettersson to take his tiny qualifying offer rather than the millions he could have had, with an understanding that the millions would be coming. The question of whether they can do this again will be big.
First off, lets note that Pettersson had no arbitration rights, which all of the RFAs did. That's a point against the Pens. The main question here is do any of the players feel like doing it, which is virtually impossible to say. That said, there are still varying questions for each guy.
Lets start with the goaltenders. Murray has made the case for the most money and, given how his expected contract didn't materialise last summer, is maybe the most difficult to negotiate with. Moving him is the very easy way out. This means that come any contract negotiations, Rutherford has a big question for him - "How much do you want to be a Penguin?" Nobody outside Murray's immediate circle truly knows the answer to that, and maybe not even the people inside in it it either. But if he wants to stay, he's going to have to give Rutherford something, because Rutherford clearly isn't interested in giving Murray top dollar. Is that something a one year contract that walks Murray to free agency? I hate the idea but it's possible. That could even reduce Murray's cap hit to something starting with 4 or maybe even 3, which would be huge.
One thing to note here are track records. It's probably in Murray's interest not to negotiate his big, UFA year eating, made for life contract after the worst season in his career.
Another thing is between high escrow and salary deferral, it seems pretty realistic that players might prefer one or two year bridges in the hope of making bigger money in UFA down the line once the cap rises again to signing long term deals now. Some players will be against that due to the risks, but not all.
So. Murray is a maybe, depending on Murray.
The most similar position to Murray's in my opinion is in fact Dominik Simon's. He just posted the worst pace of his three year NHL career and his ability to put up big scoring numbers away from Sidney Crosby remains very much questionable. If Rutherford opens negotiations with Simon by saying "I know you're worth 1.5m but I don't have that, I have 900k, do you want to take that for a year and we can revisit or do you want me to look for a trade", it's probably in Simon's interests to say "900k sounds very reasonable Mr Rutherford". That's 600k a determined GM can squash right there.
Similar-ish is Tristan Jarry. Jarry just posted a great year, his best NHL year, but he has a very short track record. I don't think he has a lot of reason to take less than what he's worth as an RFA - him coming in a million or so cheaper probably doesn't sway Rutherford if he wants and can afford Murray - but he does have plenty of reason to take a short deal and come back to market with an extra 50 odd games under his belt.
Then there's Jared McCann. His 43 point pace is the best of his career by a solid distance. If he is feeling bullish, he will think he can post more of them - or better - and amp up his earning potential. If he's feeling bearish, he will think that he'd need another really bad season of injuries at Pittsburgh to touch that again. Bullish, he thinks being on a contender offers the chance for big things, and maybe he can get a top 6 wing spot. Bearish, he thinks the two best paid wingers in the org and the best wing prospect in the org all being LW weighs heavy against him. In short, who knows what he thinks?
The summation of this is that there's a bit of room to squeeze on contract renewals, but we're mostly reliant on guys taking one for the team rather than acting out of their own self-interest. The big unknown there is Murray because he has the biggest potential hit and the biggest possible amount of self-interest in tying himself to a good defensive team in a settled situation for at least one more season.
2) Can you shift any of the expensive guys that you can live without
Here is where the cap becomes truly meh. Fitting a good team into the roster isn't hard. Moving guys you mightn't want back is. It's almost going to be a competition to get good offers from teams with cap room to spare.
Right now the Pens have two guys they can live without in Nick Bjugstad and Jack Johnson. I don't have anything new to say about how little JJ is helping the Pens. Nick Bjugstad is a slightly different matter in that he's a good NHLer who's been on a Penguins team, but he's got to stay fit and the style has slightly changed since he last was. Even if he's a guy the team can use though, he's not a guy they need.
There's pros and cons as to whether Bjugstad will be wanted elsewhere. Pro - only one year left, RH centre with career high of 49 points, hasn't paced less than 30 points in any season he's played more than 60 games. Cons - real bad injury history, with two seasons under six games, and 4.1m for it.
It's pretty much impossible to think that a team is going to put positive value on Johnson. Maybe they'd have been willing to put neutral value on him with a rising cap but with a glut of potential aid available he's going to be way down on the list of players people want..
Of course, there's potential for sweetening the deal, or buyouts, but that takes future flexibility away from the Penguins. Doing so hasn't been Rutherford's style with the Pens so far. He'd far rather keep shuffling change of scenery for change of scenery. If Rutherford is to shift cap from here, paying for it looks to be the final resort.
3) If you have to pick a goalie, which one
That's a topic for another day but the cap implications are that if its Murray who stays, the Pens probably need to find an extra 3m unless they get a bargain from Murray.
The answers to what happens to the Pens differ wildly depending on what three answers they get. If Rutherford can bring RFAs in on some bargains, shift a Bjugstad or JJ, and keeps Jarry, he's actually going to be able to have a bit of cap space to work with. If he can't, can't, and keeps Murray, he might have to do something a little dramatic. It seems unlikely Rutherford will actually choose to do something dramatic, which means Murray probably only opens up as an option if he can get good answers for 1 and 2.
But that remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Pens probably have little wrong with them, but will be irked by the lack of opportunities to truly strengthen.
Right now, the Pens have 16 players signed for next season using 68.275something million. That leaves them with up to 7 roster spots (no need to fill all 23 spots through a season though) to fill using 13.22something million. That's a basically okay situation in isolation. Of course, we all know the issues coming, but bear with me with me while I go through it in detail.
There are 10 forwards already signed - Malkin, Crosby, Guentzel, Zucker, Hornqvist, Bjugstad, Tanev, Rust, Aston-Reese and Blueger. Unsigned players include UFA Sheary and a whole slew of RFAs in McCann, Rodrigues, Simon and Lafferty. It's a strong forward corps that needs little additional help to win most nights with very few players who don't pull their weight (argument over Bjugstad and that's it). None of the free agents would be considered huge blows if they went (you heard me right McCann fans) and none are going to be wildly expensive, with McCann's 43 point season giving him comparables in the 3.25-3.5m area. Oh yes. Just realised I didn't mention Marleau. The guy with a family really entrenched in San Jose is going back to San Jose. I'd be happy to bring him back just to fuck with Toronto, but he's not coming back, and even if he does he's minimum wage so no big.
There are 6 dmen already signed - Letang, Dumoulin, Pettersson, Johnson, Marino and Ruhwedel. Unsigned players are the UFA Schultz and RFA Riikola. It's a mostly strong blueline corps because there's 4 guys who can be difference makers and 2 guys whose best case scenarios are more or less "don't suck". Finding a way to replace those 2 (Johnson and Ruhwedel) with difference makers would be a big boon. Neither free agent is particularly likely to be that if presented with more than soft minutes, although it's possible. Riikola would be cheap to keep; Schultz's price tag after a car crash of a season is unknown.
There are no goaltenders signed. Both Murray and Jarry are RFAs but have made arguments to get decent chunks of money. Paying both would probably chew through over half the allotted space - maybe more like two thirds. It would give the team arguably the strongest goaltending tandem in the league but right now, it would take some spectacular work to make possible. Thank you for reading through all of what you already know.
There are three big questions for the Pens here
1) Can you underpay any of the RFAs
2) Can you shift any of the expensive guys you can live without
3) If you have to pick a goalie, which one
1) Can you underpay any of the RFAs
Last season, the Pens got out of a hole by persuading Pettersson to take his tiny qualifying offer rather than the millions he could have had, with an understanding that the millions would be coming. The question of whether they can do this again will be big.
First off, lets note that Pettersson had no arbitration rights, which all of the RFAs did. That's a point against the Pens. The main question here is do any of the players feel like doing it, which is virtually impossible to say. That said, there are still varying questions for each guy.
Lets start with the goaltenders. Murray has made the case for the most money and, given how his expected contract didn't materialise last summer, is maybe the most difficult to negotiate with. Moving him is the very easy way out. This means that come any contract negotiations, Rutherford has a big question for him - "How much do you want to be a Penguin?" Nobody outside Murray's immediate circle truly knows the answer to that, and maybe not even the people inside in it it either. But if he wants to stay, he's going to have to give Rutherford something, because Rutherford clearly isn't interested in giving Murray top dollar. Is that something a one year contract that walks Murray to free agency? I hate the idea but it's possible. That could even reduce Murray's cap hit to something starting with 4 or maybe even 3, which would be huge.
One thing to note here are track records. It's probably in Murray's interest not to negotiate his big, UFA year eating, made for life contract after the worst season in his career.
Another thing is between high escrow and salary deferral, it seems pretty realistic that players might prefer one or two year bridges in the hope of making bigger money in UFA down the line once the cap rises again to signing long term deals now. Some players will be against that due to the risks, but not all.
So. Murray is a maybe, depending on Murray.
The most similar position to Murray's in my opinion is in fact Dominik Simon's. He just posted the worst pace of his three year NHL career and his ability to put up big scoring numbers away from Sidney Crosby remains very much questionable. If Rutherford opens negotiations with Simon by saying "I know you're worth 1.5m but I don't have that, I have 900k, do you want to take that for a year and we can revisit or do you want me to look for a trade", it's probably in Simon's interests to say "900k sounds very reasonable Mr Rutherford". That's 600k a determined GM can squash right there.
Similar-ish is Tristan Jarry. Jarry just posted a great year, his best NHL year, but he has a very short track record. I don't think he has a lot of reason to take less than what he's worth as an RFA - him coming in a million or so cheaper probably doesn't sway Rutherford if he wants and can afford Murray - but he does have plenty of reason to take a short deal and come back to market with an extra 50 odd games under his belt.
Then there's Jared McCann. His 43 point pace is the best of his career by a solid distance. If he is feeling bullish, he will think he can post more of them - or better - and amp up his earning potential. If he's feeling bearish, he will think that he'd need another really bad season of injuries at Pittsburgh to touch that again. Bullish, he thinks being on a contender offers the chance for big things, and maybe he can get a top 6 wing spot. Bearish, he thinks the two best paid wingers in the org and the best wing prospect in the org all being LW weighs heavy against him. In short, who knows what he thinks?
The summation of this is that there's a bit of room to squeeze on contract renewals, but we're mostly reliant on guys taking one for the team rather than acting out of their own self-interest. The big unknown there is Murray because he has the biggest potential hit and the biggest possible amount of self-interest in tying himself to a good defensive team in a settled situation for at least one more season.
2) Can you shift any of the expensive guys that you can live without
Here is where the cap becomes truly meh. Fitting a good team into the roster isn't hard. Moving guys you mightn't want back is. It's almost going to be a competition to get good offers from teams with cap room to spare.
Right now the Pens have two guys they can live without in Nick Bjugstad and Jack Johnson. I don't have anything new to say about how little JJ is helping the Pens. Nick Bjugstad is a slightly different matter in that he's a good NHLer who's been on a Penguins team, but he's got to stay fit and the style has slightly changed since he last was. Even if he's a guy the team can use though, he's not a guy they need.
There's pros and cons as to whether Bjugstad will be wanted elsewhere. Pro - only one year left, RH centre with career high of 49 points, hasn't paced less than 30 points in any season he's played more than 60 games. Cons - real bad injury history, with two seasons under six games, and 4.1m for it.
It's pretty much impossible to think that a team is going to put positive value on Johnson. Maybe they'd have been willing to put neutral value on him with a rising cap but with a glut of potential aid available he's going to be way down on the list of players people want..
Of course, there's potential for sweetening the deal, or buyouts, but that takes future flexibility away from the Penguins. Doing so hasn't been Rutherford's style with the Pens so far. He'd far rather keep shuffling change of scenery for change of scenery. If Rutherford is to shift cap from here, paying for it looks to be the final resort.
3) If you have to pick a goalie, which one
That's a topic for another day but the cap implications are that if its Murray who stays, the Pens probably need to find an extra 3m unless they get a bargain from Murray.
The answers to what happens to the Pens differ wildly depending on what three answers they get. If Rutherford can bring RFAs in on some bargains, shift a Bjugstad or JJ, and keeps Jarry, he's actually going to be able to have a bit of cap space to work with. If he can't, can't, and keeps Murray, he might have to do something a little dramatic. It seems unlikely Rutherford will actually choose to do something dramatic, which means Murray probably only opens up as an option if he can get good answers for 1 and 2.
But that remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Pens probably have little wrong with them, but will be irked by the lack of opportunities to truly strengthen.
Comments
Post a Comment