Penguins vs Canadiens - A look at recent match-ups
The previews are coming out thick and fast for this play-in series and here and there you see looks at the likely match-ups. Nobody much seems to be looking at who got what match-ups in the past though. So here it is, all thanks to NaturalStatTrick.
The Sid Match-Up
It's a little hard to draw hard conclusions from a season in which Sid only played one game against the Habs, but the outcome was pretty clear. He got 65.7% of his time vs Petry (who was with Kulak) and 49.3% of his time vs Gallagher and Tatar (with Danault a little behind). Apart from a couple of outliers in Kovalchuk (4:02) and Mete (1:22), the rest of the Habs got somewhere between 3:18 and 1:42 vs Sid, a pattern that suggests it didn't really matter to either coach what happened when that match-up wasn't there. Sid's line of Zucker and Simon had a hard time of it scoring chance wise against their primary match-up, with xGF% scores between 30.54 to 18.08, but still came away from it 1-0. He also scored on the second line of Drouin-Domi-Suzuki and the pairing of Chiarot and Mete. It should be noted Weber wasn't playing that night, which might have changed some things.
It wouldn't have changed everything though. A more reliable sample of 107:55 at 5v5 vs the Habs over the last three years shows Petry has always been his most present defensive foe, with 43.89% of available time against him. Does Weber change that? The pair have only coincided in one Pens-Habs game over the past three years from the looks of it, with Crosby only getting 12.07% of the available time against him. It's a small sample, but probably not. Up front we won't see much change either, with Gallagher getting 42.18% of Crosby's available time as well. Danault and Tatar have had less total time, but both hover around 51% of their time in the match-up. This one seems writ in stone as happening. What's more, this year's match was a reliable guide to what usually happens on the ice too, with Crosby having a modest 46.07% xGF% against Petry yet still 5-2 on the scoreboard. It's perhaps of mild interest to note that those 2 Habs goals must have come with Niemi behind Petry, as Price hasn't seen his team score a 5v5 goal vs Sid's line in the last three years. Price has also had the dubious pleasure of seeing Crosby's line score 7 times. Now seems as good/bad a time as any for the lopsided nature of that match-up to end. There's no history of Crosby having a particular secondary match-up against the Habs, but he's enjoyed good results vs many of Montreal's middle six citizens such as Domi, Byron, and Drouin.
The Geno Match-Up
Logically, if Crosby gets Petry, then Malkin gets Weber. This is indeed how it's worked out with 65.54% of Malkin's available 5v5 minutes spent in the company of the big man. He also had 48.42% of his time vs Danault. That's not just a factor of Crosby's injury; the one game where Julien had to plan for both, he gave Danault 14:46 of 5v5 ice time and 11:26 cumulative vs Sid and Geno. The three year sample backs up that it will be Malkin vs Weber (61.14%), but is a little more ambiguous about forward match-ups. 40.19% of time on ice spent against Danault in the past three years hints at plenty of that match-up, but Danault surely can't play all of both match-ups. There's been a lot of talk about Malkin going up against Suzuki, but Malkin went against Cousins and Thompson more than Suzuki this year. Obviously that's no longer a possibility, but the match-up doesn't seem definitely destined; although it must be noted in the game where Sullivan had Crosby, Malkin, and last change, he sent Malkin against Suzuki more than anyone else.
The Malkin-Weber match-up over the years has looked a lot more one-sided to Malkin, with a 62.66% xGF%. That marries up well with the 2-1 scoreboard advantage to Malkin. That mightn't seem like a match-up to chase, but with Crosby's xGF% strong against Weber and Malkin still hovering high at 59.04. Much will be made of stopping Crosby and the narrative of Canada's best goaltender vs Canada's captain, but it seems like Malkin might be the bigger factor (something also appreciated by anyone noting the absence of Crosby at Penguins camp scrimmages and the surplus of Beast Mode Russian). Crosby might have made more hay against the Canadiens recently, but Malkin has been consistently dangerous, and a career +/- of 14 (his second highest after Winnipeg) isn't hugely encouraging for Montreal (if possibly mostly historical).
Conclusion
I could go deeper but between the turnover on both teams, it seems meaningless to do so when the main match-ups seem set in stone. Likewise, I could look at what changes with home advantage for both, but given how high the percentages seem, it looks likely the coaches are happy to give each other what they want. Top six on top six seems to be the nature of these confrontations, with Crosby seeing a lot of Petry and Malkin a lot of Weber. Given that it's been reported that Julien plans to use his top three dmen heavily it seems unlikely to think he'll be using his third pairing much against them. It seems possible he'll use Danault and Suzuki just as heavily. Many Penguins fans are hoping that Sullivan will dodge this and allow BART to shutdown Montreal's scoring edge and unleash his elite on Montreal's bottom six, but there seems to be little reason to expect that.
The Sid Match-Up
It's a little hard to draw hard conclusions from a season in which Sid only played one game against the Habs, but the outcome was pretty clear. He got 65.7% of his time vs Petry (who was with Kulak) and 49.3% of his time vs Gallagher and Tatar (with Danault a little behind). Apart from a couple of outliers in Kovalchuk (4:02) and Mete (1:22), the rest of the Habs got somewhere between 3:18 and 1:42 vs Sid, a pattern that suggests it didn't really matter to either coach what happened when that match-up wasn't there. Sid's line of Zucker and Simon had a hard time of it scoring chance wise against their primary match-up, with xGF% scores between 30.54 to 18.08, but still came away from it 1-0. He also scored on the second line of Drouin-Domi-Suzuki and the pairing of Chiarot and Mete. It should be noted Weber wasn't playing that night, which might have changed some things.
It wouldn't have changed everything though. A more reliable sample of 107:55 at 5v5 vs the Habs over the last three years shows Petry has always been his most present defensive foe, with 43.89% of available time against him. Does Weber change that? The pair have only coincided in one Pens-Habs game over the past three years from the looks of it, with Crosby only getting 12.07% of the available time against him. It's a small sample, but probably not. Up front we won't see much change either, with Gallagher getting 42.18% of Crosby's available time as well. Danault and Tatar have had less total time, but both hover around 51% of their time in the match-up. This one seems writ in stone as happening. What's more, this year's match was a reliable guide to what usually happens on the ice too, with Crosby having a modest 46.07% xGF% against Petry yet still 5-2 on the scoreboard. It's perhaps of mild interest to note that those 2 Habs goals must have come with Niemi behind Petry, as Price hasn't seen his team score a 5v5 goal vs Sid's line in the last three years. Price has also had the dubious pleasure of seeing Crosby's line score 7 times. Now seems as good/bad a time as any for the lopsided nature of that match-up to end. There's no history of Crosby having a particular secondary match-up against the Habs, but he's enjoyed good results vs many of Montreal's middle six citizens such as Domi, Byron, and Drouin.
The Geno Match-Up
Logically, if Crosby gets Petry, then Malkin gets Weber. This is indeed how it's worked out with 65.54% of Malkin's available 5v5 minutes spent in the company of the big man. He also had 48.42% of his time vs Danault. That's not just a factor of Crosby's injury; the one game where Julien had to plan for both, he gave Danault 14:46 of 5v5 ice time and 11:26 cumulative vs Sid and Geno. The three year sample backs up that it will be Malkin vs Weber (61.14%), but is a little more ambiguous about forward match-ups. 40.19% of time on ice spent against Danault in the past three years hints at plenty of that match-up, but Danault surely can't play all of both match-ups. There's been a lot of talk about Malkin going up against Suzuki, but Malkin went against Cousins and Thompson more than Suzuki this year. Obviously that's no longer a possibility, but the match-up doesn't seem definitely destined; although it must be noted in the game where Sullivan had Crosby, Malkin, and last change, he sent Malkin against Suzuki more than anyone else.
The Malkin-Weber match-up over the years has looked a lot more one-sided to Malkin, with a 62.66% xGF%. That marries up well with the 2-1 scoreboard advantage to Malkin. That mightn't seem like a match-up to chase, but with Crosby's xGF% strong against Weber and Malkin still hovering high at 59.04. Much will be made of stopping Crosby and the narrative of Canada's best goaltender vs Canada's captain, but it seems like Malkin might be the bigger factor (something also appreciated by anyone noting the absence of Crosby at Penguins camp scrimmages and the surplus of Beast Mode Russian). Crosby might have made more hay against the Canadiens recently, but Malkin has been consistently dangerous, and a career +/- of 14 (his second highest after Winnipeg) isn't hugely encouraging for Montreal (if possibly mostly historical).
Conclusion
I could go deeper but between the turnover on both teams, it seems meaningless to do so when the main match-ups seem set in stone. Likewise, I could look at what changes with home advantage for both, but given how high the percentages seem, it looks likely the coaches are happy to give each other what they want. Top six on top six seems to be the nature of these confrontations, with Crosby seeing a lot of Petry and Malkin a lot of Weber. Given that it's been reported that Julien plans to use his top three dmen heavily it seems unlikely to think he'll be using his third pairing much against them. It seems possible he'll use Danault and Suzuki just as heavily. Many Penguins fans are hoping that Sullivan will dodge this and allow BART to shutdown Montreal's scoring edge and unleash his elite on Montreal's bottom six, but there seems to be little reason to expect that.
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