US Forwards Part One
The best thing about the new CBA? The lure of best on best hockey at the Olympics.
It's not a guarantee but dear gods I want it to happen.
I started thinking about the US forwards in particular when I was using Bryce Chevallier's site and noticed he had Malkin's closest comparable as Eichel. That got me thinking about how sick a Guentzel-Eichel pairing could be (this was also motivated by seeing some people putting Matthews and Guentzel on the same line and thinking that's a waste of two triggermen). As a result, I decided to put together an ideal US forwards roster based solely on data for this season. Note the words this season. This isn't a projection and it isn't taking past seasons into account.
I picked my initial pool to concentrate on by going to the NHL site and looking at every US forward with thirteen and a half minutes of ES time a night this season. To this list I added four forwards who I thought interesting to include for various reasons - Jack Hughes (obvious), Nick Bonino, James van Riemsdyk (both sky high p/60), and Luke Kunin (high QoC and p/60). The total list going by ES TOI -
Eichel, Matthews, Kane, Larkin, Guentzel, Connor, Lee, B Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Miller, M Tkachuk, Pacioretty, Wheeler, Rust, N Foligno, Nelson, Brown, Iafallo, Oshie, Boeser, Trochek, Copp, Hayes, Coyle, DeBrincat, Atkinson, Stepan, Zucker, Kessel, Saad, Kreider, Palmieri, Stastny, Dvorak, Coleman, Labanc, Keller, Roslovic, Parise, White, Pavelski, Kunin, Hughes, Bonino, Van Riemsdyk
It's a pretty comprehensive list. If I were to ask myself what players I might include if expanding it then I guess Tyler Johnson, a guy with a huge playoff record for Tampa, would be the obvious one. But I didn't, so there we go.
Once I got my list, I measured them by ES TOI, PPG, 5v5 p/60, QoC, xGF, and xGF% relative. It's a pretty crude list of stats, but going deeper for so many guys would be exhausting, so I've decided to use this as a qualifier round to get a group of guys worth going deep on. Note - at this point, I'm not really considering special teams. The Power Play should pretty much take care of itself. Penalty Kill might force a few considerations, but we'll see how it plays out.
ES TOI and QoC should let me know who's carrying a load, PPG and 5v5 p/60 will speak to the general ability to be productive, and xGF% and xGF% relative will let me know who can drive lines (to an extent). Then, in a pretty crude sort, I measured the top 12 for each (going over 12 for ties), then next 12, etc.etc. I gave each player a score - 4 for every category they were in the top, 3 for the second 12, 2 for the third twelve, then 1 for the bottom. Each category is weighted equally. The results of that are here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eajeBw31wIYpKP8Txw5iUzDnL2NsKbub5DcIBaEp7p0/edit?usp=sharing
This gave me four tiers for further sorting, with the highest tier being the theoretical 12 best forwards for the US based on this season and lazy stat use.
Tier 4 (lowest scores, from highest to lowest)
DeBrincat, Hayes, Pavelski, Copp, White, Kessel, Roslovic, Stepan, Hughes
Not too many surprises here. Everyone knows Jack Hughes had a bad season. Nobody's going to be talking Stepan and Roslovic for the US national team as of today. White's stats have collapsed without Stone, although he can still drive play a decent amount. And why the hell Winnipeg were giving Copp so many minutes is beyond me. Pavelski drove play well and if you believe he could stop being woefully unproductive, he might be an option for a depth role. Kessel's another guy whose cratering production removes him from contention.
DeBrincat and Hayes are the two interesting ones here. If I'd done this last season, DeBrincat would have been in contention and his low low low 5v5 scoring percentage doesn't feel like the future. Hayes likewise had a bad season and here uncharacteristically low assist rates are the culprit. I'm tempted to keep them in for further evaluation as both potentially fill needs and in a projection, I might, but for now they're so clearly not among the American form players there's no point.
Tier 3 (highest to lowest)
Iafallo, Coleman, Stastny, Trochek, Oshie, Labanc, Kunin, Parise, Atkinson, Brown, Zucker, Keller
Zucker and Keller not being in tier 4 is simply a quirk of blunt selection; they scored the same as DeBrincat, Hayes and Pavelski. Zucker remains productive but his ability to drive play against good opposition simply wasn't on display. I have so many left wings ditching him is fine. Keller is a guy I wouldn't mind having in contention to fill a slot, but he's got the same deal as Zucker - productive but not carrying a load.
Dustin Brown and Atkinson are similar - solid looking loads in terms of ice time and QoC, but didn't deal well with it in terms of production and driving play. Parise did okay with fairly soft minutes but no more. Kunin showed he could score against good opposition but not drive play.
Oshie's bad relative xGF% was the killer for him, but he didn't particularly look a great shout beyond that. Trochek provided a decent performance with a fairly soft load. Labanc is interesting as he really drove play but poor production let him down. If he could find last season's production, he'd be of interest. As for Iafallo - he played hard minutes with okay production, but his xGF% rel was in the bin. And therefore - despite having the same number of point as a bunch of guys in the tier above - so is he.
Tier 2 (highest to lowest)
Van Riemsdyk, Nelson, Kane, Saad, Palmieri, Kreider, Connor, Gaudreau, Foligno, Bonino, Coyle, Dvorak
Yes, by fairly lazy stat use, Patrick Kane shouldn't make a best of USA team today. So lazy I haven't even considered whether there's enough RWs to make that feasible. Yes, this probably is a good sign I need to improve the stats here. That said - his xGF%s were terrible, and including him in the team is, tbh, about a belief in being able to improve him by surrounding him with better and the PP.
Gaudreau and Connor not making the cut will also raise eyebrows. Gaudreau had a bad season. If I removed ToI and PPG, his 5v5 efficiency would rank him a lot lower. A projection would talk a lot about Gaudreau; a statistical ranking of this season exists mainly to stick the boot into him. Connor will be a bit more controversial as the kid just scored and scored. However, he did it with fairly soft opposition and bad possession metrics. A deeper dive must push him up - it might also push him down. The US is strong enough on LW it can afford to sniff at such things.
Less controversial - Dvorak did okay in most fields and showed an ability to push play against good opposition. Talking about him as a 4C option shouldn't be that surprising. Bonino was stunningly productive, but he didn't face great opposition. Neither did Coyle, who was less productive but better at pushing play. All could be potential 4C options, but Dvorak seems ahead for now if needed.
Kreider, Saad and Palmieri make up a little bubble of wings that wouldn't be bad but probably don't excite anyone. Kreider played hard minutes and produced very well but did little for pushing play. Saad played slightly less hard minutes and produced slightly less than Kreider but did push play. Palmieri is mainly here for his huge rel xGF% and ppg. The final wing option outside the top tier is Van Riemsdyk, who had a fantastic season but wasn't asked to do it against much. If any of them were to make a revised list, it'd probably be Saad, simply for playing both sides.
Speaking of making it despite not being in the top tier - Brock Nelson looks like the US' 4C, because there's only 3 centres ahead of him and Nelson had a strong season again hard opposition. No player played a harder QoC than him. I suspect a deeper dive might rate that higher.
Tier 1 (highest to lowest)
Matthews, Guentzel, Rust, Pacioretty, M Tkachuk, B Tkachuk, Miller, Boeser, Eichel, Wheeler, Lee, Larkin
America's LW stocks are rammed and aren't getting any less rammed. And it probably behooves me to point out that Guentzel and Rust being so high might have something to do with god mode Malkin (although finding players here with little support is hard, and one might also look at the Vancouver pairing for high results driven by their C). That said - both Penguins played hard opposition, produced like mad, and drove possession incredibly well. There's questions over whether Rust can repeat but for now, they both deserve to be there.
In fact, all of them do. All of them did well on xGF%s, with Eichel the only one with a non sky-high xGF% rel. Only Miller and Boeser faced easy opposition. It contains 9 of the 12 highest PPG forwards and the lowest p/60 is Larkin with 1.79. That said - a list with 6 LWs isn't practical.
So. The group for further digging.
Everyone in Tier 1 is in. I'm also doing the top 5 from tier 2 - everyone with a score of 17 or higher. That cut-off point includes everyone who I think should definitely be discussed. 16 includes guys like Nick Foligno, who's a fine player but who I think I don't need to dig deep into answers for why he's not making Team USA when the lazy stats say so. That said, there are some additional guys I'm going to look at.
I'd like to exclude any further LWs as the pool there is so deep but I think if I don't do Gaudreau and Connor, there'll be unanswered questions. I'm also intrigued by Kreider's ability to score a lot against difficult opposition, so he's in too. I would love to add more right wingers but there's not a lot of options. I'm deciding to include Blake Coleman and Charlie Coyle, as well as Stastny, Bonino and Dvorak as possible options for 4C or as a spare.
That gives me
LW: Guentzel, Pacioretty, M Tkachuk, B Tkachuk, Miller, Lee, Van Riemsdyk, Saad, Kreider, Connor, Gaudreau
C: Matthews, Eichel, Larkin, Nelson, Bonino, Coyle, Dvorak, Stastny
RW: Rust, Boeser, Wheeler, Kane, Palmieri, Coleman
With both Saad and Coyle both able to play RW at least.
Links to further Posts
Right Wings
It's not a guarantee but dear gods I want it to happen.
I started thinking about the US forwards in particular when I was using Bryce Chevallier's site and noticed he had Malkin's closest comparable as Eichel. That got me thinking about how sick a Guentzel-Eichel pairing could be (this was also motivated by seeing some people putting Matthews and Guentzel on the same line and thinking that's a waste of two triggermen). As a result, I decided to put together an ideal US forwards roster based solely on data for this season. Note the words this season. This isn't a projection and it isn't taking past seasons into account.
I picked my initial pool to concentrate on by going to the NHL site and looking at every US forward with thirteen and a half minutes of ES time a night this season. To this list I added four forwards who I thought interesting to include for various reasons - Jack Hughes (obvious), Nick Bonino, James van Riemsdyk (both sky high p/60), and Luke Kunin (high QoC and p/60). The total list going by ES TOI -
Eichel, Matthews, Kane, Larkin, Guentzel, Connor, Lee, B Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Miller, M Tkachuk, Pacioretty, Wheeler, Rust, N Foligno, Nelson, Brown, Iafallo, Oshie, Boeser, Trochek, Copp, Hayes, Coyle, DeBrincat, Atkinson, Stepan, Zucker, Kessel, Saad, Kreider, Palmieri, Stastny, Dvorak, Coleman, Labanc, Keller, Roslovic, Parise, White, Pavelski, Kunin, Hughes, Bonino, Van Riemsdyk
It's a pretty comprehensive list. If I were to ask myself what players I might include if expanding it then I guess Tyler Johnson, a guy with a huge playoff record for Tampa, would be the obvious one. But I didn't, so there we go.
Once I got my list, I measured them by ES TOI, PPG, 5v5 p/60, QoC, xGF, and xGF% relative. It's a pretty crude list of stats, but going deeper for so many guys would be exhausting, so I've decided to use this as a qualifier round to get a group of guys worth going deep on. Note - at this point, I'm not really considering special teams. The Power Play should pretty much take care of itself. Penalty Kill might force a few considerations, but we'll see how it plays out.
ES TOI and QoC should let me know who's carrying a load, PPG and 5v5 p/60 will speak to the general ability to be productive, and xGF% and xGF% relative will let me know who can drive lines (to an extent). Then, in a pretty crude sort, I measured the top 12 for each (going over 12 for ties), then next 12, etc.etc. I gave each player a score - 4 for every category they were in the top, 3 for the second 12, 2 for the third twelve, then 1 for the bottom. Each category is weighted equally. The results of that are here - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eajeBw31wIYpKP8Txw5iUzDnL2NsKbub5DcIBaEp7p0/edit?usp=sharing
This gave me four tiers for further sorting, with the highest tier being the theoretical 12 best forwards for the US based on this season and lazy stat use.
Tier 4 (lowest scores, from highest to lowest)
DeBrincat, Hayes, Pavelski, Copp, White, Kessel, Roslovic, Stepan, Hughes
Not too many surprises here. Everyone knows Jack Hughes had a bad season. Nobody's going to be talking Stepan and Roslovic for the US national team as of today. White's stats have collapsed without Stone, although he can still drive play a decent amount. And why the hell Winnipeg were giving Copp so many minutes is beyond me. Pavelski drove play well and if you believe he could stop being woefully unproductive, he might be an option for a depth role. Kessel's another guy whose cratering production removes him from contention.
DeBrincat and Hayes are the two interesting ones here. If I'd done this last season, DeBrincat would have been in contention and his low low low 5v5 scoring percentage doesn't feel like the future. Hayes likewise had a bad season and here uncharacteristically low assist rates are the culprit. I'm tempted to keep them in for further evaluation as both potentially fill needs and in a projection, I might, but for now they're so clearly not among the American form players there's no point.
Tier 3 (highest to lowest)
Iafallo, Coleman, Stastny, Trochek, Oshie, Labanc, Kunin, Parise, Atkinson, Brown, Zucker, Keller
Zucker and Keller not being in tier 4 is simply a quirk of blunt selection; they scored the same as DeBrincat, Hayes and Pavelski. Zucker remains productive but his ability to drive play against good opposition simply wasn't on display. I have so many left wings ditching him is fine. Keller is a guy I wouldn't mind having in contention to fill a slot, but he's got the same deal as Zucker - productive but not carrying a load.
Dustin Brown and Atkinson are similar - solid looking loads in terms of ice time and QoC, but didn't deal well with it in terms of production and driving play. Parise did okay with fairly soft minutes but no more. Kunin showed he could score against good opposition but not drive play.
Oshie's bad relative xGF% was the killer for him, but he didn't particularly look a great shout beyond that. Trochek provided a decent performance with a fairly soft load. Labanc is interesting as he really drove play but poor production let him down. If he could find last season's production, he'd be of interest. As for Iafallo - he played hard minutes with okay production, but his xGF% rel was in the bin. And therefore - despite having the same number of point as a bunch of guys in the tier above - so is he.
Tier 2 (highest to lowest)
Van Riemsdyk, Nelson, Kane, Saad, Palmieri, Kreider, Connor, Gaudreau, Foligno, Bonino, Coyle, Dvorak
Yes, by fairly lazy stat use, Patrick Kane shouldn't make a best of USA team today. So lazy I haven't even considered whether there's enough RWs to make that feasible. Yes, this probably is a good sign I need to improve the stats here. That said - his xGF%s were terrible, and including him in the team is, tbh, about a belief in being able to improve him by surrounding him with better and the PP.
Gaudreau and Connor not making the cut will also raise eyebrows. Gaudreau had a bad season. If I removed ToI and PPG, his 5v5 efficiency would rank him a lot lower. A projection would talk a lot about Gaudreau; a statistical ranking of this season exists mainly to stick the boot into him. Connor will be a bit more controversial as the kid just scored and scored. However, he did it with fairly soft opposition and bad possession metrics. A deeper dive must push him up - it might also push him down. The US is strong enough on LW it can afford to sniff at such things.
Less controversial - Dvorak did okay in most fields and showed an ability to push play against good opposition. Talking about him as a 4C option shouldn't be that surprising. Bonino was stunningly productive, but he didn't face great opposition. Neither did Coyle, who was less productive but better at pushing play. All could be potential 4C options, but Dvorak seems ahead for now if needed.
Kreider, Saad and Palmieri make up a little bubble of wings that wouldn't be bad but probably don't excite anyone. Kreider played hard minutes and produced very well but did little for pushing play. Saad played slightly less hard minutes and produced slightly less than Kreider but did push play. Palmieri is mainly here for his huge rel xGF% and ppg. The final wing option outside the top tier is Van Riemsdyk, who had a fantastic season but wasn't asked to do it against much. If any of them were to make a revised list, it'd probably be Saad, simply for playing both sides.
Speaking of making it despite not being in the top tier - Brock Nelson looks like the US' 4C, because there's only 3 centres ahead of him and Nelson had a strong season again hard opposition. No player played a harder QoC than him. I suspect a deeper dive might rate that higher.
Tier 1 (highest to lowest)
Matthews, Guentzel, Rust, Pacioretty, M Tkachuk, B Tkachuk, Miller, Boeser, Eichel, Wheeler, Lee, Larkin
America's LW stocks are rammed and aren't getting any less rammed. And it probably behooves me to point out that Guentzel and Rust being so high might have something to do with god mode Malkin (although finding players here with little support is hard, and one might also look at the Vancouver pairing for high results driven by their C). That said - both Penguins played hard opposition, produced like mad, and drove possession incredibly well. There's questions over whether Rust can repeat but for now, they both deserve to be there.
In fact, all of them do. All of them did well on xGF%s, with Eichel the only one with a non sky-high xGF% rel. Only Miller and Boeser faced easy opposition. It contains 9 of the 12 highest PPG forwards and the lowest p/60 is Larkin with 1.79. That said - a list with 6 LWs isn't practical.
So. The group for further digging.
Everyone in Tier 1 is in. I'm also doing the top 5 from tier 2 - everyone with a score of 17 or higher. That cut-off point includes everyone who I think should definitely be discussed. 16 includes guys like Nick Foligno, who's a fine player but who I think I don't need to dig deep into answers for why he's not making Team USA when the lazy stats say so. That said, there are some additional guys I'm going to look at.
I'd like to exclude any further LWs as the pool there is so deep but I think if I don't do Gaudreau and Connor, there'll be unanswered questions. I'm also intrigued by Kreider's ability to score a lot against difficult opposition, so he's in too. I would love to add more right wingers but there's not a lot of options. I'm deciding to include Blake Coleman and Charlie Coyle, as well as Stastny, Bonino and Dvorak as possible options for 4C or as a spare.
That gives me
LW: Guentzel, Pacioretty, M Tkachuk, B Tkachuk, Miller, Lee, Van Riemsdyk, Saad, Kreider, Connor, Gaudreau
C: Matthews, Eichel, Larkin, Nelson, Bonino, Coyle, Dvorak, Stastny
RW: Rust, Boeser, Wheeler, Kane, Palmieri, Coleman
With both Saad and Coyle both able to play RW at least.
Links to further Posts
Right Wings
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